The Post In Which I Offer Shallow Comments On Iraq

I gotta be honest. I have no idea how the hell other people with jobs and/or lives blog consistently. Where do they get the time.  This dilemma occurs to me because I wanted to note the situation this month in Iraq. From the AFP -

Eleven US soldiers were killed in Iraq in July, the lowest monthly toll since the 2003 invasion, according to Pentagon figures, highlighting what US commanders say is a marked drop in overall violence.

Exceptionally good news. And the surge was certainly a factor. The key to the success of the surge was not simply the extra troops, however, but the fortuitous timing. The Awakening was already in progress and there were other factors at work that allowed the result of the surge to be as positive as it has been.

Now, I would like to go into more detail on the Awakening and the othe details, but, for me, that may take a couple hours research and writing. I’ve got real work to do, man. How do others do it.

Maybe I should just try to be more like instapundit and just put up a link and say “heh” and pretend that makes me insightful.

Three Question Headlines In a Row? Why?

I have no idea!

(And now four! Sacrebleu!)

The Kiss of Death for Obama’s Chances?

ABC’s Jake Tapper reports French President Nicolas Sarkozy all but endorsed Obama for President.

“Obviously one is interested in a candidate looking towards the future rather than the past,” Sarkozy said, in French, which was translated by his office for reporters.. “We say good luck to Barack Obama. If he is chosen France will be delighted and if it’s someone else then France will be the friend of the United States of America.”

That’s what American’s want in a President — love from the French!  Still, I love the way he phrased it, just suggesting such a dismissive tone toward McCain.

New Home Sales. Turning?

Here’s an image of New Home Sales since the beginning of 2005. The white line is the original release, the red line is the revised figure. Note how consistently the numbers were revised lower each and every month until around the end of last year. The past couple of months have reflected upward revisions. It’s way too early to call a turning point in the housing market, but with Washington finally about to pass  bill to help the housing sector, this may be worth keeping an eye on. Click the pic for a larger image

New Home Sales - Original & Revised

How Much of a Problem Will Overconfidence Be?

From Time:

it might be time to ask the question the horse-race-loving media are never supposed to ask: Is McCain a no-shot?

That’s just getting ridiculously carried away. As the article goes on to note:

Then again, history also suggests that Democrats don’t blow out Republicans; there hasn’t been a Democratic landslide since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. It’s also unwise to underestimate the hunger of the media for an exciting race. If Obama emerges as a big front-runner, it’s a good bet that the press will air more of McCain’s attacks. And so far, polls have indicated a fairly tight race, usually tilting towards Obama by just a few points. He’s still a relative newcomer in a wartime election, unknown to many Americans. He’s still got his Reverend Wright problem. And during the primaries, even a sizable number of Democrats told pollsters they felt uncomfortable voting for a black man.

There does seem to be a growing assumption that McCain is going to lose. To what degree will that assumption result in Democrats failing to work as hard as they will need to in order to get the job done this year?

GOP Panic

From the Politico’s article “GOP senators scramble for life boats” :

a GOP leadership aide says leaders have told vulnerable senators that it’s all right to “get well” with voters by siding with Democrats on anything but energy and national security.

HaHaHa! You know you’ve got a problem when you need to ask permission to “get well” with your constituents. The best part though is that the GOP admits the only way they can do that is to vote with Democrats.

Still, there are about three-and-a-half months to go before the election. While I don’t see any way the Democrats can completely screw this up, I’m sure they’ll find a way to stumble and limit the potential gains.

Why In The Hell Hasn’t This Jumped the Pond?

McCain Aide Scheunemann Linked To Bush Library ‘Cash For Access’ Scandal

How is it that only the U.K. is covering the bribing of our president? What the hell is wrong with our reporters? I read the papers every day. I know that good work that gets done. I know that this country would be even worse off without our press. Still, our coverage of the administration continue to be a joke. The idea that the the U.K.’s fucking Times not only continues to scoop our own reporters on this story, but that our reporters then use that as an excuse to ignore the story is just an embarassment and an outrage.

Best Health Care In The World, Baby!

Despite spending $230m (£115m) an hour on healthcare, Americans live shorter lives than citizens of almost every other developed country. And while it has the second-highest income per head in the world, the United States ranks 42nd in terms of life expectancy.

The Sophisticated Can Spot The Difference

Choosing Tom Toles after Herblock’s passing was the best decision the Washington Post ever made.

Some Sanity At The Pentagon

This article was on page A6 of the Washington Post today.

Gates Warns of Militarized Policy

Defense Secretary Stresses Civilian Aspects of U.S. Engagement

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates warned yesterday against the risk of a “creeping militarization” of U.S. foreign policy, saying the State Department should lead U.S. engagement with other countries, with the military playing a supporting role.

“We cannot kill or capture our way to victory” in the long-term campaign against terrorism, Gates said, arguing that military action should be subordinate to political and economic efforts to undermine extremism.

…. “America’s civilian institutions of diplomacy and development have been chronically undermanned and underfunded for far too long — relative to what we traditionally spend on the military, and more importantly, relative to the responsibilities and challenges our nation has around the world,” Gates said at a dinner organized by the U.S. Global Leadership Campaign, according to prepared remarks of his speech.

… “Broadly speaking, when it comes to America’s engagement with the rest of the world, it is important that the military is — and is clearly seen to be — in a supporting role to civilian agencies,” Gates said.

I was going to argue that this article belonged on the front-page, not stuck back on A6. It’s been a particularly busy news week though, and I couldn’t tell you which article on the front-page should be pulled. Still, Gates seems to be the main voice of reason in the Administration now. And my guess is that’s a big reason why we made the recent deal with North Korea and why we are now preparing for the highest level talks with Iran since the ‘79 overthrow. Without Rummy to back him up, Cheney’s clout has fallen markedly.

Of course the fact that 7 years of listening to Cheney has resulted in approval ratings in the 20s may also have impacted Bush’s thinking.

Another Terrorist Fist Jab?

“A Spanish-language McCain radio ad gets nearly all its facts wrong.”

This is from FactCheck.org.

McCain’s new radio ad, in Spanish, aims to show Florida would benefit from the Colombia Free Trade Agreement, which he supports. But every number in the ad is wrong, except one, a prediction of job gains taken from a group favoring the trade deal. And even that number is rounded upward so generously as to flunk third-grade arithmetic.

C’mon. Seriously, at this point, the campaign isn’t ‘getting its facts wrong’. When every single point is wrong, and wrong in a way that the campaign would see as favorable, it’s just lying.  Maybe they just thought they could get away with it since it was in Spanish.

But wait! Look over there! Obama said something using a new phrasing! It must be important, even though it only confuses me…  Pay attention to that instead!

Timetable?

From what I understand, some in the White House have been trying to suggest Malik’s recent ‘timetable’ comment was nothing — perhaps even just a mistranslation of what he actually said.

So much for that talking point.

Uncle Sam Wants You! …under investigation …if you’re Muslim

From the AP:

The Justice Department is considering letting the FBI investigate Americans without any evidence of wrongdoing, relying instead on a terrorist profile that could single out Muslims, Arabs or other racial and ethnic groups.

But, here’s the thing, the article goes on to say

Among the factors that could make someone subject of an investigation is travel to regions of the world known for terrorist activity, access to weapons or military training, along with the person’s race or ethnicity.

So, basically, the FBI will eventually be investigating every Muslim soldier and every soldier of Middle Eastern descent. That oughta play out well for the FBI.

Nonesense. We All Know That Only Obama Has Unsavory Friends

The co-host of a recent top-dollar fundraiser for Sen. John McCain oversaw the payment of roughly $1.7 million to a Colombian paramilitary group that is today designated a terrorist organization by the United States.

How small are the chances this gets any traction beyond the Huffington Post? What’s smaller than infinetesimal?

Learning the Wrong Lessons

In writing about this NYT article this morning, I think Kevin Drum focuses on only half of what’s truly interesting about it. The fact that we taught interrogation methods  “that the United States long described as torture ” taken directly from “a 1957 Air Force study of Chinese Communist techniques used during the Korean War” is horrific.

But I think the fact that those methods were used by the Chinese to elicit false confessions is at least as important in the context of the current situation. Even if you push the morality of it aside, this is why torture is still a bad idea. It just doesn’t work. We don’t need confessions. We need truth to save lives. There is no way to know if any statement coerced through torture is the truth. In the meantime, the method of of obtaining the statement inherently weakens the standing of those committing the acts of torture. In other words, the information gleaned by torture does not advance our cause, but the act itself sets our cause back. Both evil and stupid.

They’re Better at Chess Than You

(via James Hamilton)